Two common questions we get are:
- How does Gimme calculate ADS (average daily sales)
- How many visits or days in the past are considered
The short answer is we calculate ADS based on the moving average between the ADS values of the last two visits.
Now let’s unpack that to answer the second question. This calculation is intentionally recursive. It uses ADS to calculate a new ADS — to create a moving average that “smooths” things out in the long term, so erratic events or a single bad DEX or “off visit” doesn’t create terrible forecasts for months. Because it’s not strictly defined in terms of the number of visits, our ADS calculation can “kick in” for new machines on the third visit; for established machines, 4-6 visits ago may still have some impact, but that impact shrinks to zero the further back you go.
It’s also important to point out that several things besides ADS impact the number of products picked for your points of sale. For your markets and a large majority of machines equipped with telemetry, picking will almost entirely be based on your real-time sales or telemetry data, and there isn’t much need for forecasting. As a best practice, we recommend timing pick orders as close as possible to the time of the scheduled visit. That doesn't mean that you have to generate the pick order right before the driver leaves for the visit, but if you generate a pick order more than one day in advance will likely result in bringing less product than you need.
Other factors to contribute to the number of products sent to a POS are:
- Incorrect Start and Add values entered in Field
- Some drivers “zero” their current inventories in an effort to override the system into sending a full machine worth of snacks
- Artificially increasing pick orders in this way dramatically reduces ADS
- Getting a hard DEX from a visit
- Receiving remote DEX
- Quickly addressing Gimme Key or telemeter DEX errors